I met with them again and have additional info. For this product they might buy 300-500 individual stocks of the Schwab 1000 index in your account, picked to closely match the index performance. Only makes sense in a taxable account and they have a 100k minimum. If an individual stock goes down by some predetermined amount, they will sell it and immediately buy something similar. For example if HD went down 5%, they might sell and then buy the same $ amount of LOW. This happens constantly, not EOQ, EOM, EOY, etc. Rules based. 40 basis points fee.

Here is what happened in 2022 and 2023 in cash funded accounts:
Image 4-6-24 at 11.42?AM (resized).jpeg

Performance was similar to the index, but you got to pocket 26% (2022) and 8% (2023) of your entire balance in losses to carry forward or use against gains in this account or others. In 22 and 23 it more than paid for the fee as long as you have gains somewhere else to use them against.

Just noticed it underperformed the index in 23 by 2 points after fees, gotta check on that.

See if it works for you. Good luck.

Money addition isn’t a Ponzi scheme. Govt’s adding money into the economy past 50 years without restrictions has made life better for all.

The treasury has a money printer. And govt can pay its bills with it. The national debt is the money supply. You like money? Like more or less money?

Money added by govt works because it lessens the value of the dollars we currently hold “through inflation and taxes” it makes people continue to work, run businesses and hold assets (and manage and take care of the assets also - like a business or say a home)

Assets always outrun dollars overtime. Dollars added hold up assets value and encourage investment and work to get the dollars sloshing around the economy. Assets like a farm, oil well, concrete company, cargo ship, a school, hospital, apartment building etc are necessary for society to function. 100% true! And money add “flows” to these spots and always will. But the best places “to make society better for all” is money put into innovation.

Innovation example - If one owns a farm they can do well, but if farmers figure out how to grow more crops in a shorter period of time using less fertilizer and water then they can do really well and even get rich. Meanwhile food costs keep low, less use of our resources and the world does not starve. Notice how did not use an iPhone - too obvious.

But fun fear fact - Many were not born yet but in 1968 there was major fear that mass starvation would happen. Innovation trumped it! But the book still sold 2 million copies. And that is 2 million in 1968?! Any good books written how the debt will crush us and our children?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

So how do you get your chunk of money with all this money add?? Hold assets, run a business sucking the money out of the economy, work, invest in stocks, buy a house, etc.. Add “innovation that makes life better to get multiplies of anything above, meaning work in, create a product, run a business, invest in, etc in innovation to really make the bucks! Farms or tech etc.

This is important! Do keep in mind the govt money additions don’t go up the same amount each year, all the different “assets” don’t all go up together in a straight line. They go in ranges. You can do well looking for times to buy assets and sell assets.

How? With the govt blowing out deficits sorry “money supply” since 1980, 2009 and especially 2020 on we will see great times for economies and assets but have painful resets which money “slows”. It will be easier to invest if you can wrap your head around it.

So! Correlate money addition with the price of assets to chart the way. Price resets can go up but also down.

SaP 6000’s coming next year. 2020 with assets low and money addition skyrocketing what happened? 2026 with money supply slowing and assets at huge valuations huger then now what do you think will happen??
Here is a chart for last world fiscal trends. Where are we now? Trust me when we hit 6000 the calls for SaP 10,000 will come.

Will see!

IMG_4011 (resized).jpeg

I think you're right on and I strongly agree with much of what you say. That's what is so maddening the metrics being used don't give an accurate picture. Not talking about people who just crossed the border, by now some of the millions who have been processed into the county in last few years are included in the jobs report. As for unemployment it only takes 4 weeks of nonparticipation to not be counted in unemployment rate. We need to toughen up and get to work doing something besides serving each other ice cream part time. But hey I'm just getting into pinball and I love it. I need to lighten up and have some fun, ya think? LOL

The fed has created alot of problems with there imaginary talk of interest rate cuts this year. Stock markets have been inflated because of the feds promise. There will be alot of losers and more banking crisis as a result. They should of kept there incompetent mouths shut. All while inflation was not even defeated yet. The next meeting the fed needs to hike rates before inflation spirals completely out of control.
3.5% inflation for a world class country, who's currency is the world's standard is unacceptable.

The fed obviously paused to soon. Whatever they were trying to achieve, did not materialize

But then again, whenever there's bad economic news lately. It seems like the last 10-15mins of the trading day all that bad news goes away and the stock market closes higher. Strange, let's see if the free markets get manipulated today aswell to brush away bad news and mysteriously make it good news. Crazy

Today they did not recover into the green. The "Buy Into Weakness" crowd may be running out of money or something (Like selling during the night and rest of the day ). I am thinking the big institutions and money people have been selling off at higher prices and it is going to stair step down for awhile. I guess we will know for sure tomorrow morning if everything jumps 300 points up or not .

To answer specifically your question - day traders who borrow against their margin need to close out their positions before end of day hence one reason why previously things rubber band back into the green. Bought some SH and TZA earlier in the day, sold it for a little money and got back in towards closing. Planning on sitting in it for a little bit.

On the plus side, the timing of all this couldn't be better.

If we could just get the price of oil back over $100 and gasoline to $6 by October...

I fell less than 1%. I do not think it is all doom and gloom. Buy the dip. :p

It's like people forget that we just came out of an unprecedented world wide event that the US has recovered from far better than anyone else. To think that everything is going to be 'awesome' so soon after seems pretty naive.

lol. I don't agree with how much of it was handled, but i think the money going to isreal and ukraine are much more of an issue.

Does the phrase spending like a drunken sailor mean anything to you?

After all the stimulus money that was pumped into the economy back in 2020, it might have been a good time to hit the brakes and give it some time to see what happens, but NO!!!

Now the fed is in between a rock and a hard place trying to lower inflation and servicing its own debt. Interest rates should be closer to 10% now, but they can't do that because of what they owe.

I don't remember a time people weren't complaining about the debt or spending. Except during Clinton..but everyone hates him. So...

I was pretty realistic about how that was all going to play out. We'll be paying for 2020-2021 for decades. It's just how it is. Live within your means.

Might as well call it what it is - we are at the point of no return. Only way to get out of debt is to let inflation (print money) run so they owe less over time. Cash is trash for sure. Assets like real estate, equities, commodities, maybe even crypto are the only way to hold on to your wealth....

o-din
I agree with you, interest rates should be well over 10%
We might get there, that's the silly part. As long as The U.S.A keeps doing there part by spending like retards and keep on creating mind boggling defecits, on the return end of the tale ...Souverign nations like Japan, China, Saudi, etc or bond investors decide that they don't need to buy any more American bonds, and the ones they do own, they let simply mature , collect the interest and walkaway, well lookout! I know alot of insurance companies, pension funds, buy American paper, what I don't get it why? It just dosent pay enough. The main risk being inflation. At the end of the day, the interest payed over the term period gets pretty much eaten alive by inflation. Bonds investment stinks if you hold on for the term.

I'm looking for a stock.correction in the near term. Only thing in the way is a strong earnings season with good forward guidance, but then again if that happens then the fed will have to raise rates to cool a hot economy.

Boeing, Walgreens, Starbucks and Sirius made 52 week lows.
Is Boeing a buy, any more scandals making there way up.through the media?

I'd hold off till 150 for a buy.

Unless something happens, I think Walgreens is on it's way out? With Amazon entering the online pharmacy field (along with Walmart, CVS, etc) I am not sure they have much left to offer.

Silly part is Walgreens replaced Exxon on the dow30 few years ago

It used to mean something to own American.
The reason the 92 % pure American gold Eagle demands a higher premium over any foreign 24K pure gold coin.
There is an American spirit that influences the purchase and sell price of certain USA produced products.
This is waning but still significant.

It's insane how many people talk like somehow inflation being 2% (or a different admin) suddenly milk will be .99, houses and rent will be cheaper, cars will be 15k, and pinball prices will drop to sub 10k. None of that will happen. Regardless of who is in charge. Because prices are not controlled by those people. You want prices to go down? Stop buying their products and their stocks. It's really THAT simple.

I bought a few things, but I have to tell the sentiment is now changed, and we will be going down more till the street gets clarity....so buy the dip, but be stingy with your money.

In my opinion, Boeing below 200 is always a buy, but there aren't any good news on the horizon, so the short sellers will have their way for now. The 1st good news could be about buying out Spirit Aero, the 2nd good news will be a rumor of a CEO candidate that's from outside the company....if it's internal the stock might drop again. The two good names that could send the stock up is GE CEO Larry Culp, (I hope they're talking to him, he's the best candidate) and P. Shanahan, the current Spirit Aero CEO, he's no Larry Culp but he knows Aviation manufacturing. With that said, there are host of possible bad news scenarios, the wall street mafia likes to short names that are already damaged, and they go to work to amplify any bad news. I know for fact there is going to be some more bullshit stuff coming out after the FAA completes their review. So, I guess we'll see where it goes...but you can't kill a duopoly, specially during the times of war.

Edit: A good thread about Shanahan, I guess Culp is out of the running

https://www.reddit.com/r/boeing/comments/1bnt53b/boeing_ceo_options_bloomberg/

@Kvann99
Thank you for your Boeing input, it's certainly on my watch list now, same with Starbucks, Nike, apple. I'm just not feeling the market at the moment. So these companies will remain on my watchlist ...With China's economy so weak, American inflation not defeated at all, but the govt spending money like hobos, creating even more inflationary pressures, is very worrisome. More War crap & threats going on. I would think it's time for some sort of correction. My opinion.... Not much has changed in the economic fronts since late October? Actually, China is getting weaker since then, inflation getting more heated since October, and these wars still no end in sight with a possible escalation . Makes you wonder why we are up over 20% since October?
Then again I'm a value investor, I simply don't see Nvidia at $895 as a buy or buying any ai/tech related company at 10x +++ revenues for the "long haul"

gif speaks volumes to the nonsense going on. Say anything because there are no consequences. Inflation creation act and what's to show for it, everyone involved got a slush fund at taxpayers' expense. Remember the movie Backdraft? Inflation is like the fire you think is out but is in the walls smoldering waiting to feed again. A fire that cannot be put out with a "soft landing". Only one outcome for stock market Pain Lots of Pain. I'm done with FOMO, not buying dip, waiting for crash. If it takes 6 months so be it... I'll probably nibble tomorrow LOL.

Here is part of a post I put here 18 months ago. I would encourage you to read the article from Russel Napier. It’s a roadmap of where we were in 2020-22 and where we are headed. Look how he predicted 2023 would roll - recession? “Laughable”.

Key point which is creating a lot of confusion, anger, name calling etc - The playbook over the last 40 years has changed. Adapt or not, it’s your choice. The fiscal blowouts will drive economies and earnings etc.. now and probably next decade and beyond.

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Fed and banks are weaker than ever. Follow them but not like that past.

We will have upsides like we have never seen like 2020-21 and downsides like 2022. 2023 through 2025 has been on track for upsides again. Fiscal goes in cycles - 2026 next time of cycle drop. With super high asset prices by then from 2020-2025 fiscal blowouts (minus 2022) that will be a “look out below time” and those who follow the playbook can protect themselves before. The bears will be right! But wrong on the timing like most are.

Inflation is here to stay. 2% is gone. Savers and bond holders will get picked away at with dollar addition and taxes. So asset holders will win BUT! have some deep resets they are not used to. Some very deep beore recovery.

Simply - if you hold dollars or other currency and govt each year adds a lot more dollars then it has in the past the dollars you hold are worth less. So savers will lose more than they did the last 40 years. Hope you understood this?

Like those folks getting 5% yields last year and a half - even they lost to asset holders - big time. Good to learn why.

New playbook is actually easier than ever with govts running the show. Govt adds more money in - assets go up. High asset prices from up here and govt’s slow spending - downside of assets coming.

Follow fiscal adds and correlate them with asset prices - stocks

Adapting is the hard part. It’s also hard for successful/wealthy/asset manager folks who used methods for decades to switch. It will hard for younger folks who think 2009-24 upside is based on whatever they follow “unless” these groups start to focus more on the fiscal flows.

Bulls and bears can win if they follow the playbook also. Key point - be both.

Michael Howell is solid on flowing the fiscal also. Watch him if he comes up on interviews to help with the new playbook. Not only help but understanding. https://www.youtube.com/live/SkVPXApxb2g?si=Versq7iV4re29ngl

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/stock-market-traders/page/355#post-7194497

Adapt is the point. And trying to keep this as simple as possible. It took me a long time to learn this and switch. Most will not. Once again - up to you

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I think part of the issue is twofold. Most peoples savings are tied up in 401k's and even if it wasn't they are priced out of 'assets'. The % of people who have cash laying around is small.

I think my portfolio was on that bus.

Markets, all of them are in dock idling like a PT Boat ready to go into action.

I'm raising cash.
Fed is now more likely to raise rates then cut them. The market is trading as rate cuts in the horizon. First it was March, then June , now July??? Get real. How about rates hikes..... Market should correct to downside when rates are hiked or when wall street finally realized that there's no rate cuts. Alot of companies are sensitive to rates. Fed govt and state governments are over spending, rates hikes will correct bad spending behavior, even on state and federal government levels. As inflation rises, budget defecits grow, and rate hikes are on the horizon, the government will most likely smarten the heck up and the printing presses will slow down. Spending gets cut.... I think we will see a rethink by excessive govt spending in 2nd half 2024 and it will be an election issue of course. If inflation continues to creep up, fed reserve dosent do nothing, and govt continues to print, borrow and blow, I'm sure Moody's, s&p or fitch will give the government and the bond community a rude awakening on the American credit worthiness. If does happen, then expect sell off in American bonds, and rising yields. And a bad stock market...

The fed reserve is finally cornered in a tight spot now. Years of reckless spending is finally starting to show it's face.
let me remind all pinsiders that the fed was created to control inflation thus protect America's dignity regardless what, how or what the govt says or does. The fed is a seperate entity of the govt and cannot be bullied by any agencies...
If the govt acts in reckless spending, and creates massive inflation then the feds job is to bring inflation down through whatever means incl massive interest rate increases to counter attack bad govt policies. The most important thing the fed needs to do is make sure the economy grows smoothly and max employment and at a preferred rate of inflation which 2% is seen acceptable. If this isn't achieved, foreign investors, businesses and Indy will stop believing in the American dream and capital will flow elsewhere. This will destroy America's credit score(rating) destroy confidence, and destroy the almighty American dollar..
Now with all that said, if the fed reserve does raise rates by 0.25% or even 0.5% on May10. Then yes, they are doing there job, and actually protecting the American monetary system for the foreseeable future. If anyone should get slammed for the stress of additional borrowing cost expensive, it's the idiots in Washington d.c. called the federal government!!! The fed reserve ironically is actually protecting us"the people" from the government when the government is acting irrational as they have been now for years. If the federal reserve was created and weren't doing there jobs correctly, the $usd would of been destroyed by bad government policies from many years of government abuse. The fed needs to hike again, not only to prove to the world that they have the back of the $usd but they will give investors and individuals the right environment to thrive with the Us economy if you continue to invest in America.

The US government would of single handily destroyed the American economy with stupid reckless spending, bad fiscal policies, and runaway inflation...If the fed reserve wasent invented to be" the general"
Whatever purchasing power is left in the $usd and the prosperity left investing in America is because historically the fed reserve have been doing there job. I still think they can do better. I hope on May 1 they hike rates, and basically tell the government to smarten up, watch your spending. Ultimately it will be bad for stock market, but long term the markets will do alot better, once govt respects taxpayers and inflation finally slows down where American workers feel that a hard days work was actually worth it.

Goodnight to all pinsiders.

On a side note I'm looking for something more defensive, just in case the markets do correct.

Would Pfizer be considered defensive?
Cute dividend?
Juicy free cashflows?

What are some of your defensive hedges?

Tbil

Prices rarely go down, they just stop going up or don't go up as much. What I have seen is products I bought before the pandemic are often 20%++ more now than they used to be. That's crazy and something we have not really seen in our lifetimes.

Not true at all. Rate hikes and then their effects take many months to work through the system. Inflation has come down but over tightening can cause the significant damage, you saw that with some bank failures last year. I think they have done a done a good job with this tightening cycle, they just should have started it much earlier.

Try not to get too caught up in day to day market movements, it's noise. Unless you are day trading that's not what is important. Longer and medium term trends, that's what you should watch.

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Car Insurance has been a huge part of the inflation rise. Drive safely folks!

https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1778479611577356399

For a group of folks yes but actually it’s the opposite of what you are saying at insane levels Zablon . The money fiscal adds are leveling out for the months ahead so market is more “on its own”, but so much cash is on the sidelines at record historical levels ready “to buy assets even if they are at higher prices”. We should take a pause and break over last month and next few months but even so what are we talking about here? Back to 4800 before the next run?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MMMFFAQ027S

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRMFNS

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-is-the-best-investment-i-ve-ever-made

kool1
Any thoughts on Bip-un on tsx *Brookfield infrastructure partners*?

Great company BUT based on the chart alone I would look elsewhere at this time.

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Well today was fun.

Well... it did drop below 38,000.

Looks like one of those steep water slides.

Never have seen gold swing $100 during a trading day before. Crazy times...

Fed officials are a highly intelligent bunch so when they do something stupid, it's by design. 0% interest for way to long while printing money was dumb. WHY? is too dark for this website but ask yourself this- if we are printing and loaning ourselves money why do we have to pay it back with interest?

kool1
What are you guys buying, in this wacky market?
Or are you guys raising cash like me?
Your opinion, much aprey, big guy

That ain't nothin wait till Silver rips. I don't know when but it's set up to be a rocket ship. Historically undervalued. Do not take advice from me, do your own homework. I think if paper contracts sell off they have to be covered by real Silver/Gold which creates a chance for a squeeze. All I know is things are starting to act wacky. Wish I had bought those John Wick coins LoL.

Again, long term investors and buyers of dips. Not much of a dip yet but I would add industrials, financials some cyclicals and tech. This sell off looks very geopolitical into a weekend. May not last.

How about intel for long term growth? Seems like homegrown chips are too important to fail, govt funded if needs a bail. Nvidia can't make enough chips to supply everything but everything needs a chip, hec even bags-O-chips needs a chip. I'll buy chips on dip. Investing with Dr. Seuss

Ghostfist

I also like Intel, but I feel.if this market dips further the techs & Nasdaq will be hot harder.
Intel looks good, not sure wheres the buy point.

I meant tech and Nasdaq will be hit harder if the markets continue to experience continued weakness. Now for Intel, I do agree with @Ghostfist, with chip makers like Intel, receiving priority treatment from Congress. Mainly to help them up there game and become a viable American super power tech/chip maker. The good thing about Intel is they came out with earnings and forward guidance that obviously missed guidance. Therefore the stock has taken a hit and alot of negativity is already priced in. I'm not sure how much lower is can go but it does seem like an interesting play already. I'm just going to be a tad bit more patient for now. I'm also looking into wolfspeed stock as well. Intel still has a $150bil market cap, so they need to.smarten the heck up, because there's alot of room for the stock to.get even more depressed. I personally like to see it drop under $30. Like I said, I'm being patient in this wacky market. Intel.is indeed on my radar

I owned it last year at like 33 but got mad sold all when they cut dividend so I missed the upside. I just saw it drop 5% today and started thinking maybe get back in it. If it goes to 30 I like it. $25 is bottom even if market drops hard. Monday is must see TV I will be glued to screen lol.